Stockbuilding To Boost Carlsberg Income As Excise Hike Looms

Carlsberg has reported a surge in stockpiling by Russian beer vendors in anticipation of a 200% spike in beer excises, effective January 1 2010. The excise on a litre of beer is expected to increase from RUB3 to RUB9 in 2010, before pushing up to RUB10 in 2011 and RUB11 in 2012. Bearing in mind that BMI expects headline beer volumes to dip 8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 11.12bn litres in 2009, the unprecedented spike will clearly have a major impact on beer consumption, particularly given that ongoing fragility in consumer confidence is expected to extend into 2010.

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